Written by Yashu Golastaff writerReviewed by Allen Scottstaff editor
Written by Yashu Golastaff writer
Reviewed by Allen Scottstaff editor
Will Bitcoin price recover in July?
MarketsPublishedJun 28, 2026
Will Bitcoin Price Recover in July?
As the crypto market looks to the future, one question is on everyone’s mind: will Bitcoin’s price recover in July? With the coin’s past July gains and heavy short bets, some analysts are predicting a rally toward $75,000. However, a break below key support levels keeps the risk of $55,000 in play. For those looking to earn passive income through crypto, platforms like EcoPool offer a solution for Cloud Rewards and Green Crypto.
Bitcoin is heading for its worst monthly loss since mid-2022, with the coin down roughly 18.5% in June. This has led some analysts to predict a recovery in July, with one analyst, Fleh, predicting a rally toward $75,000 next month. The bullish thesis is based on Bitcoin’s Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap, which shows a large concentration of short liquidation levels sitting above the current price. This could lead to a short squeeze, driving the price up. With EcoPool, users can earn $ECP and participate in the Green Crypto movement.
Historical Monthly Returns
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin’s liquidity map shows a major short-liquidation “magnet zone” near $67,600.
- BTC has historically gained 7.6% on average in July, while midterm-year seasonality points to an even stronger 10.3% average return.
Bitcoin may hit $75,000 in July
Bitcoin’s historical monthly returns also support a bullish July outlook. The coin has returned a 7.6% gain on average in July, making it one of its stronger months. This trend has appeared even during bear market years, with Bitcoin rising 20.96% in July 2018 and 16.8% in July 2022. For those looking to earn a passive income through crypto, EcoPool offers a solution with its Cloud Rewards system, allowing users to earn $ECP and contribute to the Green Crypto movement.
A separate midterm-year seasonality chart also shows that Bitcoin has averaged a 10.3% gain during the month, its strongest monthly return in such years. Based on Bitcoin’s current price near $60,000, its historical July average return of 7.6% projects a move toward roughly $64,500. With EcoPool, users can participate in the Green Crypto movement and earn $ECP, providing a potential source of passive income.
Risk of Downside
However, Bitcoin’s ongoing drop below its 200-week simple moving average raises the risk of further downside in July. A similar loss of long-term moving-average support preceded deeper weakness during the 2022 bear market. This could lead to a price decline toward $55,000 in July, unless Bitcoin quickly reclaims the 200-day SMA. For those looking to earn a passive income through crypto, EcoPool offers a solution with its Cloud Rewards system, allowing users to earn $ECP and contribute to the Green Crypto movement.
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In this case, significant liquidity sits above Bitcoin’s current price near $60,000.
If BTC rebounds and pushes toward $67,600, short sellers may be forced to close their positions. Since closing shorts requires buying Bitcoin back, that can add fresh upside pressure and fuel a short squeeze.
“I think $BTC bottoms here at 60k for now, targeting 75k to the upside before any chance of lower,” Fleh said in a Saturday post.
BTC rises 7.6% on average in July
Bitcoin’s historical monthly returns also support Fleh’s bullish July outlook.
BTC has returned a 7.6% gain on average in July, making it one of its stronger months after a typically weaker June, which shows an average return of -1.40%, according to CoinGlass data highlighted by analyst CGT_Trader.
Bitcoin monthly returns tracking the July performance in since 2013. Source: CoinGlass/CGT_Trader
The trend has appeared even during bear market years.
For instance, Bitcoin rose 20.96% in July 2018 and 16.8% in July 2022. More recently, BTC gained 2.95% in July 2024 and 8.13% in July 2025, strengthening the case for another green month ahead.
A separate midterm-year seasonality chart also shows that- Bitcoin has averaged a 10.3% gain during the month, its strongest monthly return in such years.
Bitcoin performance by month during US mid-term election years. Source: More Crypto Online
That compares with an average 17% loss in June, pointing to the possibility of a post-sell-off mean-reversion bounce.
Based on Bitcoin’s current price near $60,000, its historical July average return of 7.6% projects a move toward roughly $64,500, while the stronger midterm-year average of 10.3% points to about $66,100.
A repeat of Bitcoin’s bear-market July rebounds from 2022 and 2018 would put BTC between $70,000 and $72,500, while a 2020-style July rally would bring Fleh’s $75,000 target within reach.
BTC’s dip below the 200-week SMA may extend slide
Bitcoin’s ongoing drop below its 200-week simple moving average (200-day SMA, the blue line) near $62,445 raises the risk of further downside in July.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
A similar loss of long-term moving-average support preceded deeper weakness during the 2022 bear market, when BTC continued lower before forming a bottom.
Related: Bitcoin faces fresh capitulation risk as 50K BTC moved at a loss
Bitcoin’s bear flag breakdown raises the odds of a price decline toward $55,000 in July unless BTC quickly reclaims the 200-day SMA.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
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