Written by Christina Combenstaff writerReviewed by Andrew Fentonstaff editor

Written by Christina Combenstaff writer

Reviewed by Andrew Fentonstaff editor

Has Bitcoin bottomed for this cycle? Analysts say ‘not yet’

FeaturesPublishedJul 7, 2026

Is Bitcoin’s Bottom Near or Still Far Off?

As Bitcoin hovers around $64,000, down by almost 50% from its cycle peak, analysts are split on whether the cryptocurrency has already reached its cycle bottom or if it still has a way to go. The 2025 rally, driven by exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and institutional demand, pushed Bitcoin to a new all-time high of over $126,000, but the trend has been downward since then.

The debate among analysts is not just about where Bitcoin will bottom, but also about what a “cycle bottom” means in a market shaped by ETFs, macro liquidity, and global capital flows. Some analysts, like Russell Thomson, believe Bitcoin remains in a downcycle and is likely to break below recent lows before forming a durable base. Others, like André Dragosch, see a late-stage bear market where exhaustion signals are already visible, even if confirmation is still pending.

Different Perspectives on Bitcoin’s Cycle

Dean Chen, an analyst at Bitunix Exchange, argues that Bitcoin is still in a decline, but one defined by global liquidity competition rather than internal crypto market structure. He believes Bitcoin is competing directly with other major global capital narratives, particularly artificial intelligence and equity markets, for marginal liquidity. This changes how cycle analysis should be understood altogether, with the more important question being when crypto will once again become the most attractive destination for global risk capital.

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Impact on the Market

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Bitcoin’s four-year cycles. Source: Galaxy

Galaxy Research, for example, argued in June that traditional cycle signals have not fully reset, meaning the risk of further pain cannot be ruled out.

Curiously, analysts are no longer just divided on price targets but on what a “cycle bottom” actually means in a market increasingly shaped by ETFs, macro liquidity, and shifting global capital flows.

Some analysts still see further downside ahead

At the most cautious end of the spectrum is Russell Thomson, chief investment officer at Hilbert Capital asset management firm.

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Thomson said he believes Bitcoin remains in a downcycle and is likely to break below recent lows before forming a durable base. He said that the current structure is still dominated by global macro conditions and liquidity rather than crypto-native signals.

Related: $60.4K Becomes ‘most important area’: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

Thomson expects Bitcoin to first revisit the $56,000-$52,000 range, representing summer 2024 lows, before potentially extending losses further to between $40,000 and $45,000, an area he associates with prior consolidation phases in the early 2024 market structure.

Timing-wise, he sees Bitcoin’s broader cycle rhythm still broadly intact, with a potential low forming around October 2026, although he stressed that macro policy shifts could pull that forward.

“Fed rate cuts and/or [the CLARITY Act] passing could put the bottom in earlier than that,” he said.

He argued that institutional capital has not insulated Bitcoin from macro cycles, but rather deepened its sensitivity to global liquidity conditions, making it behave more like a “high-beta macro instrument” than a “detached crypto-native asset.”

That view is echoed by analysts at Citibank, who cut their 12-month price target for Bitcoin to $82,000 from $112,000 on July 1, highlighting how Bitcoin’s growing integration into traditional financial markets has strengthened its correlation with risk assets and macro liquidity conditions rather than reducing volatility.

Late-stage bear market, but not confirmed bottom yet

A more positive but still cautious view comes from André Dragosch, head of research (Europe) at Bitwise.

Dragosch told Cointelegraph that the current environment resembles a “late-stage bear market,” arguing that multiple indicators already suggest downside exhaustion.

He noted that sentiment has deteriorated to levels last seen after the collapse of FTX in 2022, a period typically associated with seller fatigue.

Dragosch also does not believe the cycle low has been confirmed. “I don’t think that we have seen the final bottom just yet, although we are probably very close,” he said, emphasizing that no single indicator can reliably identify a cycle bottom.

Related: Dormant $1.9M Bitcoin tied to New York lawsuit moves after nearly 15 years

He also highlighted the structural shift in the market, pointing to the rise of ETFs and institutional participation, which have increased off-chain trading and reduced the reliability of some historical cycle indicators.

Despite this uncertainty, he said downside risks appear increasingly limited at current levels, adding that Bitcoin could begin outperforming artificial intelligence equities over the coming months if macro conditions stabilize.

Bitcoin price and its cycle bottoms. Source: Galaxy

In Galaxy’s base-case scenario, the firm pointed to a potential slide to between $40,000 and $46,000, depending on how liquidity and macro conditions evolve.

‘When will Bitcoin bottom?’ could be the wrong question

A more structural interpretation comes from Dean Chen, an analyst at Bitunix Exchange.

Chen told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin is still in a decline, but one increasingly defined by global liquidity competition rather than internal crypto market structure.

“I believe Bitcoin remains in a down cycle, although it has entered a relatively stable valuation range supported by the structural capital base created after the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024,” Chen said.

While ETFs have created a more persistent institutional bid, Chen argued that Bitcoin is now competing directly with other major global capital narratives, particularly artificial intelligence and equity markets, for marginal liquidity.

Related: Tim Draper says Arkham got Bitcoin wallet attribution ‘wrong’

“The bigger challenge isn’t Bitcoin itself; it’s the competition for global liquidity,” he said. “Capital continues to flow toward AI infrastructure, equities, and other high-growth opportunities.”

In his view, this changes how cycle analysis should be understood altogether.

“The wrong question is ‘when will Bitcoin bottom?’” Chen said. “The more important question is: ‘when will crypto once again become the most attractive destination for global risk capital?’”

He noted that derivatives markets now play a significantly larger role in price discovery than in previous cycles, with funding rates and open interest increasingly driving short-term volatility.

That means Bitcoin may not form a sharp V-shaped bottom at all, he said, but instead spend an extended period building a structural base.

A Bitcoin cycle that no longer looks like previous cycles

Beyond price targets, what emerges from these competing views is a deeper disagreement over how Bitcoin’s cycle structure should even be defined.

Thompson sees Bitcoin as still firmly inside a macro-driven down cycle, where liquidity conditions have not yet fully turned.

Dragosch sees a late-stage bear market where exhaustion signals are already visible, even if confirmation is still pending.

Chen argues that Bitcoin is now competing directly with global capital allocation themes such as AI and equities, making traditional bottom-calling frameworks increasingly incomplete.

In this cycle, it seems, the debate is not just about where Bitcoin bottoms but whether a “bottom” is still a single moment at all.

Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt

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• Bitcoin Price
• Bitcoin ETF
• Market Analysis
• Bitcoin

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