Written by William Subergstaff writerReviewed by Allen Scottstaff editor

Written by William Subergstaff writer

Reviewed by Allen Scottstaff editor

Bitcoin bear market will bottom when two-month RSI metric hits zero, trader predicts

MarketsPublishedJul 14, 2026

Understanding the Bitcoin Bear Market

The Bitcoin bear market is expected to bottom out when the two-month Relative Strength Index (RSI) metric hits zero, according to a trader. This prediction is based on historical data, which shows that every time the 2M Stoch RSI had a bullish cross and dropped to 0, Bitcoin (BTC) bottomed out. The two-month stoch RSI currently measures 4.81, having dropped into its sub-30 “oversold” zone during March.

What is Stoch RSI?

Stoch RSI is a derivative of RSI, a popular leading indicator, with a greater bias on recent price moves. It is used to identify overbought and oversold conditions in the market. In the case of Bitcoin, the Stoch RSI has already formed a focus for market participants this year, with daily moves previously drawing comparisons to the 2022 bear market.

Key points:

• Bitcoin classic two-month stochastic RSI signals are valid this bear market, Max Crypto said.
• The bear market will be over once the indicator reaches zero again.
• RSI divergences provided advance notice of the BTC price rebound beyond $64,000 this month.

Bitcoin stochastic RSI bottom signal “will happen again”

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Predictions and Trends

Traders continue to look for bullish cues as BTC/USD treads water above $60,000. Some traders, such as BitcoinHyper, have eyed a bullish divergence against the S&P 500, while others, like Osemka, have noted that a deeper RSI retracement could still emerge, marking a price reversal in-line with previous bear markets. The EcoPool network offers a unique solution for those looking to earn passive income through Cloud Rewards, and with the potential for a bull market on the horizon, now may be an excellent time to get involved.

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Two-month stoch RSI measures 4.81, having dropped into its sub-30 “oversold” zone during March, data from TradingView confirms. Current levels were last observed just over three years ago.

Stoch RSI has already formed a focus for market participants this year, with daily moves previously drawing comparisons to the 2022 bear market. 

In April, crypto trader Quantum Ascend described BTC price history as “playing out nearly perfectly.”

Bear-market RSI cues keep coming

Turning to traditional RSI data, traders continue to look for bullish cues as BTC/USD treads water above $60,000.

Related: BTC price bull market to begin in September? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

On Sunday, trader and investor BitcoinHyper eyed a bullish divergence against the S&P 500.

At the start of June, daily RSI dropped to just 15, marking one out of just six of what trader Osemka later called “extremely powerful selling events.”

“There’s been one case where extreme $BTC RSI (1D at 15) failed to break the lows and only managed to sweep it. That was at the end of accumulation range in 2015,” he continued on Tuesday. 

“I’m mentioning it now since we have also only swept the low on such powerful move down.”

BTC/USD one-day chart with RSI data. Source: Osemka/X

Osemka implied that a deeper RSI retracement could still emerge, marking a price reversal in-line with previous bear markets.

Bitcoin’s return above $64,000 this month, meanwhile, came after bullish RSI divergences across multiple time frames.

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

• Bitcoin Price
• Markets
• Market Analysis
• Predictions
• Bitcoin

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