Written by William Subergstaff writerReviewed by Yohan Yunstaff editor

Written by William Subergstaff writer

Reviewed by Yohan Yunstaff editor

BTC supply in profit eyes 60%, but analysis hints recovery may ‘roll back over’

MarketsPublishedJul 24, 2026

Bitcoin supply profitability improved versus its 2026 low, but analysis warned that a fake recovery had already broken down at the start of June.

Bitcoin (BTC) investors are back in aggregate profit, but onchain data suggests it’s too early to confirm a new bull market.

Key points:

• Bitcoin supply profitability is improving, but the trend must prove its staying power before confirming a market recovery, says CryptoQuant.
• Supply in profit is now approaching 60%, up from its 2026 low near 46% less than a month ago.
• Long-term holder onchain losses continue to dominate — a caveat in a bullish recovery.

Bitcoin profit metrics risk second false breakout

as reported by onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin supply in profit rebounded above the 50% mark in July.

Bitcoin supply in profit. Source: CryptoQuant

“Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit (%), the share of Bitcoin worth more than its acquisition price, has climbed to 57.5% as of July 22, up from 46.2% on June 30, the 2026 low,” CryptoQuant contributor thechessONCHAIN summarized.

Bitcoin supply in profit data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

With nearly 60% of the BTC supply now in profit, the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders (LTHs) is also improving. 

LTHs are entities whose Bitcoin has remained dormant for at least six months. SOPR measures the proportion of LTH coins moving onchain at a higher price relative to their previous transaction. Values above 1 indicate coins moving onchain mostly in profit, while values below 1 indicate LTH investors are moving coins at a loss, potentially indicating capitulatory activity.

ThechessONCHAIN explained that previous bear markets have only ended when both supply in profit and LTH-SOPR meet specific requirements.

The 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of LTH-SOPR should remain above 1 without falling below that level for weeks on end, while total supply in profit should be above 64%. 

“This cycle already produced one failed attempt: from April 28 to June 1 the LTH-SOPR average held above 1.0 for 35 days, Supply in Profit reached 67%, and both rolled back over,” TheChessOnChain pointed out.

Since then, the 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for more than 50 days.

Bitcoin LTH-SOPR chart with 30-day SMA. Source: CryptoQuant

BTC investment recovery stays fragile

As Cointelegraph reported earlier, Bitcoin supply in loss crossed the 50% mark in June, a threshold that has historically preceded bear-market bottoms.

Related: Bitcoin will get ‘lift’ from Hyperliquid, Robinhood in next crypto bull market: Bitwise exec

Here, too, the data reveals similarities among Bitcoin bear markets, with the 50% loss mark sparking the final countdown to a BTC price cycle bottom in previous years.

Demand, meanwhile, appears mixed, with weak spot-market interest meeting a rebound in institutional BTC allocation.

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

• Bitcoin Price
• Market Analysis
• Markets
• Bitcoin

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