Written by Helen Partzstaff writerReviewed by Robert Lakinstaff editor

Written by Helen Partzstaff writer

Reviewed by Robert Lakinstaff editor

Bernstein forecasts Bitcoin to reclaim $125K by late 2026 ahead of cycle peak

MarketsPublishedAug 26, 2026

Bernstein anticipates Bitcoin to reclaim $125,000 by late 2026 before reaching $300,000 in 2029 under its base case, with a bull case of $500,000.

Wall Street research company Bernstein anticipates Bitcoin to recover from its latest downturn, reclaim its 2025 high and set new records in the coming years heading into the peak of its historical cycle.

Bernstein anticipates Bitcoin (BTC) to reclaim $125,000 by late 2026 under both its base and bull cases, as reported by a research report published Wednesday and seen by Cointelegraph.

The company stated Bitcoin gained 28% over the previous 10 days after falling about 50% from its October 2025 peak, a rebound that could signal the end of the current bear cycle.

The analysts’ call comes as institutional investors and corporate Bitcoin buyers play a bigger role in the market, which Bernstein stated provided greater downside support during the latest cycle and contributed to a smaller drawdown than the 75% to 90% declines of previous cycles.

Next cycle could see Bitcoin reach $300,000

Bernstein’s base case puts Bitcoin at $150,000 by mid-2027 before reaching a cycle peak of about $300,000 in 2029. Its bull case puts the biggest crypto at $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029.

The company maintained its longer-term BTC target of about $1 million by 2033 under both scenarios.

Bernstein’s forecast is based on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycles, which the company links to the halving, an event that cuts the amount of new Bitcoin awarded to miners roughly every four years. Bernstein divides each cycle into four phases: breakout, hype, drawdown and accumulation.

Source: Bernstein

The company then estimates Bitcoin’s potential price during those cycles by comparing it with the marginal cost of producing Bitcoin, or the estimated cost for the least efficient miners to produce new coins.

Related: Strategy’s $66B Bitcoin machine hinges on capital markets, not BTC price: Report

“We assume that the price-to-marginal cost multiple will behave in a similar manner to previous 4-year cycles,” Bernstein analysts stated.

Under Bernstein’s base case, that multiple falls from 1.4 times at Bitcoin’s $125,000 peak in 2025 to 1.25 times at a projected $300,000 peak in 2029 and about 1.2 times at $1 million in 2033.

Strategy could ramp up Bitcoin buying

Bernstein also anticipates a Bitcoin recovery to improve the outlook for Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder. Strategy holds 840,447 BTC, equivalent to about 4% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins.

The analysts maintained their “Outperform” rating on Strategy but cut its MSTR price target to $350 from $450, citing accelerated equity dilution and its updated Bitcoin cycle outlook. MSTR closed at $126.83 on Tuesday, up 3.4% on the day, as reported by Yahoo Finance.

Source: Bernstein

Bernstein stated continued Bitcoin strength, combined with a recovery in Strategy’s Stream (STRC) preferred stock to around $100, could allow the company to “go kinetic again” with Bitcoin purchases after selling around 7,000 BTC in 2026. STRC closed at $97.15 on Tuesday, as reported by Yahoo Finance.

Recent analysis from Regime Intelligence stated Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury may be less vulnerable to a crypto market crash than to a prolonged loss of capital-market access, a risk that could threaten its ability to fund roughly $1.76 billion in annual obligations without selling BTC.

Magazine: Bitget CEO isn’t buying the Bitcoin rally — She’s waiting for $50K

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

• Bitcoin Price
• Predictions
• MicroStrategy
• Research
• Michael Saylor
• Markets
• Bitcoin

More on the subject

Bitcoin ETFs tear through 2026 outflows in 7-day hot streak

5 hours ago

Helen Partz

Bitcoin enters ‘initial phase’ of new bull market, but $83K remains key: CryptoQuant

18 hours ago

Nate Kostar

Strategy’s $66B Bitcoin machine hinges on capital markets, not BTC price: Report

20 hours ago

Sam Bourgi

Bitcoin ETFs tear through 2026 outflows in 7-day hot streak

5 hours ago

Helen Partz

Bitcoin enters ‘initial phase’ of new bull market, but $83K remains key: CryptoQuant

18 hours ago

Nate Kostar

Strategy’s $66B Bitcoin machine hinges on capital markets, not BTC price: Report

20 hours ago

Sam Bourgi