Written by Jesse Coghlan, Staff Editor. Reviewed by Felix Ng, Staff Editor.
Written by Jesse Coghlan, Staff Editor.
Reviewed by Felix Ng, Staff Editor.
Bitcoin risks extended retreat as April rally was futures-driven: CryptoQuant
Latest NewsPublishedMay 1, 2026
Why Bitcoin’s April Rally May Not Be Cause for Celebration
Bitcoin’s price surge in April, driven mainly by futures traders, may be a sign of an impending price decline, rather than a sustained upward trend. This is because spot demand for Bitcoin actually decreased during the rally, indicating that the market’s marginal buyer was speculative, not fundamental. As a result, the Bitcoin price may be due for a correction. The crypto analytics firm warns that this divergence between rising price and contracting spot demand is a clear on-chain signal that price gains are speculative rather than structural.
The current demand for Bitcoin mirrors a pattern seen at the start of the 2022 bear market, when futures demand surged while spot demand dropped. This setup ultimately preceded a sustained price decline, and history suggests it carries meaningful downside risk. With Bitcoin remaining in a bear market regime, investors should be cautious of a potential extended retreat. The Bull Score Index, which analyzes market and network activity, fell from 50 to 40 in April, indicating that conditions are getting bearish.
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Bitcoin is trading around $77,000 at the time of writing, rising 2.1% over the past 24 hours. CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s correction from $79,000 last month is consistent with rallies led only by strong futures demand.
Current demand for Bitcoin mirrors a pattern at the start of the 2022 bear market, when futures demand surged while spot demand dropped, a setup that “ultimately preceded a sustained price decline.”
Source: CryptoQuant
Related: Bitcoin price hits one-week low as $100 oil sparks fresh Asia crisis fears
“History suggests this setup carries meaningful downside risk as Bitcoin remains in a bear market regime,” CryptoQuant said.
The report is in contrast with a note on Tuesday from Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, which said the Bitcoin treasury company Strategy has been the “single biggest factor” in Bitcoin’s recent rally.
“There have been multiple drivers of the recent rally, including strong buying from ETFs [exchange-traded funds], $3.8 billion since March 1, and renewed purchases by long-term holders. But Strategy has been the single biggest factor,” Hougan argued.
CryptoQuant added that its Bull Score Index, which analyzes market and network activity to gauge market sentiment on a scale of 100, fell from 50 to 40 in April despite the price increase.
“The Bull Score returning back to 40 indicates conditions are ‘getting bearish’ and places the market in the same range that historically preceded continued price weakness,” CryptoQuant said.
Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt
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