Written by Yashu Gola, Staff Writer. Reviewed by Allen Scott, Staff Editor.
Written by Yashu Gola, Staff Writer.
Reviewed by Allen Scott, Staff Editor.
Bitcoin whale ‘still short’ BTC despite facing $13M in losses
MarketsPublishedMay 12, 2026
A growing cluster of bearish indicators points to a possible Bitcoin pullback toward $71,000, potentially easing the whale’s $13 million net losses.
A Bitcoin (BTC) whale is now down about $13 million as BTC price has rebounded by around 40% from its February lows. nevertheless, the trader continues to stand by the short position.
Key takeaways:
- A trader known as “pension-usdt.eth” is short 1,000 BTC worth roughly $81 million using 3x leverage.
- The BTC short position will be fully liquidated at $100,810, while Kalshi bettors now assign a 50% probability of BTC reaching $100,000 in 2026.
Nearly $81 million risks liquidation if BTC hits $100,000
Known by the moniker ‘pension-usdt.eth,’ the trader is short 1,000 BTC, worth about $81.06 million, with 3x cross leverage, as reported by data gathered by HypurrScan.IO.
The position, with exposure of over $80.87 million, was opened when BTC was trading for $67,990. As of Tuesday, the cryptocurrency had risen to around $81,000–$82,000, leaving the short position down just shy of $13 million.
BTC and ETH short positions of pension-usdt.eth as of May 12. Source: HypurrScan.IO
The trader also holds a 20,000 Ether (ETH) short worth about $46.1 million, bringing total bearish exposure to more than $127 million.
Funding from both short BTC and ETH positions has added over $125,000, though that is dwarfed by the unrealized loss.
The drawdown is notable because pension-usdt.eth once had 20 straight wins and a win rate above 85%, stated data resource Lookonchain in its April post.
Nonetheless, the trader verified that he is “still short,” and that “the trade makes sense.”
Source: X
The comments came as Bitcoin showed signs of upside exhaustion near a strong resistance confluence. This resistance level includes the 200-day simple moving average (200-day SMA, blue line) and the upper boundary of a rising wedge pattern, both around $82,430.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
A successful resolution of the wedge pattern will rise Bitcoin’s odds of dropping toward the measured target around $71,500. The trader’s unrealized loss on the 1,000 BTC short would shrink to roughly $3.5 million if that happens.
Analyst Crypto Kid further stressed that a rejection from the 200-day SMA has historically signaled prolonged bear markets.
“The last two times this retest occurred at the same point in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, we dropped an average of 68%,” he stated in a Monday post.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
A similar drawdown from current levels would send the BTC price under $30,000, turning pension-usdt.eth’s trade into a profit of roughly $38 million.
Analysts say Bitcoin’s structure no longer resembles prior bear markets
Some analysts argue that the current Bitcoin setup no longer resembles previous bear-market conditions.
Analyst CRG pointed out that during the 2022 bear cycle, Bitcoin did not post a single daily close above the Ichimoku cloud. This zone often serves as dynamic resistance in downtrends and support in uptrends.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView/CRG
BTC’s eventual breakout above the cloud marked the start of a “new bull market.”
As of May, BTC was already trading comfortably above the daily cloud. For CRG, that weakens the bearish comparison with the last cycle.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView/CRG
Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, echoed a similar view, arguing that the current bear market has “materially decoupled from past cycles.”
Bitcoin drawdown from all-time highs to cycle lows. Source: Pierre Rochard
In a Tuesday post, Rochard stated Bitcoin’s relative strength likely comes from a combination of steady ETF inflows and continued accumulation by Bitcoin treasury companies such as Strategy.
Related: Bitcoin price eyes $96K as institutions absorb 500% of daily BTC supply
On Kalshi, a prediction market platform, bettors now see 50% chance of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 in 2026.
Bitcoin price targets for 2026. Source: Kalshi
Pension-usdt.eth’s $81 million Bitcoin position will be liquidated entirely if the BTC price reaches $100,810.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
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