Summary
- Despite being barred from Polymarket, U.S.-linked wallets traded about $571 million in political markets over the past year, more than any other country, according to on-chain analysis firm Allium.
- Allium found that Americans disproportionately bet on geopolitics rather than elections, with U.S. wallets heavily trading markets on foreign wars and novelty events that regulated U.S. venues generally do not offer.
- The data shows U.S. traders are no better at picking winners than others, but their persistent offshore activity underscores a policy dilemma for regulators over whether to bring such markets onshore or leave them outside U.S. oversight.
Americans Defy Ban to Trade on Polymarket
Despite being banned from using Polymarket, Americans have found ways to participate in the platform’s political betting markets. In the last 12 months, wallets tied to the U.S. have traded a staggering $571 million in notional value, surpassing all other countries, including Hong Kong, which traded $422 million. This is according to a recent report by onchain analysis firm Allium. The popularity of Polymarket among Americans is noteworthy, given the platform’s efforts to block U.S. users by IP address.
The use of crypto rails and stablecoins has enabled Americans to bypass the ban, as there is no bank or broker involved in the transactions. This means that regulators have limited power to restrict access, and users can easily circumvent the block using a VPN and an existing crypto wallet. The onchain analysis firm Allium has been able to track the activity of U.S. wallets, even when they use VPNs to mask their location, by analyzing their onchain behavior.
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