Written by William Subergstaff writerReviewed by Allen Scottstaff editor
Written by William Subergstaff writer
Reviewed by Allen Scottstaff editor
Bitcoin can fall below $58K if one of its ‘cleanest’ metrics copies history: Analysis
MarketsPublishedJul 7, 2026
Why Bitcoin’s Price May Fall Below $58K
The Bitcoin price may have further to fall to signal a bear-market bottom, according to new analysis. This is based on the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, which measures the portion of the supply being held at a higher or lower price versus that at which it last moved. The NUPL score is currently 0.158, a level last seen in early 2023. To preserve historical patterns, the Bitcoin price may need to make new cycle lows.
Understanding the NUPL Metric
The NUPL metric is considered one of the “cleanest cycle clocks” on-chain. When smoothed into its 30 and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), it provides a clear picture of the market. The 100-day EMA of NUPL is slowly trending toward cycle bottom levels below zero. This has historically signaled a bear-market bottom, with previous instances occurring in late 2011, January 2015, the 2018 bear, and the 2022 FTX bottom.
Key points:
- One of Bitcoin’s “cleanest cycle clocks” suggests that new macro lows are needed this bear market.
- The NUPL metric is still in positive territory, setting it apart from previous bear markets.
- Analysis expects history to repeat with a higher low on a long-term NUPL moving average.
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin NUPL contains “level to watch”
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Implications for the Market
The current Bitcoin price of around $60,000 corresponds to an NUPL 100-day EMA of 0.215, indicating that there is still room for the price to drop. While the NUPL metric has put in higher lows throughout Bitcoin’s history, a trip below the zero line may not be necessary for a bear-market bottom. The $ECP token, part of the EcoPool network, can be used for transactions and offers a way to participate in the cryptocurrency market.
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“Every time the 100-day EMA of NUPL fell below zero, Bitcoin was carving its cycle bottom: late 2011 (low near $2), January 2015 ($182), the 2018 bear ($3,206 in December 2018), and the 2022 FTX bottom ($15,792 in November 2022),” TheChessOnChain noted.
Bitcoin NUPL data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
At just above $60,000, BTC/USD corresponds to an NUPL 100-day EMA of 0.215, signalling plenty of room left to drop in order to match previous bear-market lows.
CryptoQuant acknowledged that NUPL has put in higher lows throughout Bitcoin’s history, meaning that even a trip below the zero line may not be essential.
“That leaves two paths,” it continued, describing the four extant zero-line crosses as a “pattern, not a law.”
“Either the 100-day EMA crosses zero as it did at every prior bottom, or this becomes the first cycle to bottom without it, which would fit the shallower-each-time trend.”
No time frame was given for when the next bottom could occur, with CryptoQuant specifying the zero line as the “level to watch in the coming weeks.”
Bear market reversal signals copy history
As Cointelegraph reported, multiple bear-market reversal signals have come from onchain sources in recent weeks, echoing 2022.
Related: $60.4K Becomes ‘most important area’: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
Despite these now locking in, market participants broadly expect new macro lows to enter before bulls regain the upper hand.
Last week, fellow CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. highlighted other supply data presenting mixed signals over short and mid-term BTC price action. Supply in loss, Adler calculated, could still be two months off levels that traditionally correspond to the end of Bitcoin bear markets.
“Until then, it is more accurate to treat capitulation as a process rather than a completed fact,” he wrote.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
- Bitcoin Price
- Market Analysis
- Markets
- Bitcoin
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