Written by Yashu Golastaff writerReviewed by Allen Scottstaff editor
Written by Yashu Golastaff writer
Reviewed by Allen Scottstaff editor
Bitcoin price may hit $24K if US stock market crashes by 50%, analyst warns
MarketsPublishedJun 21, 2026
Why a US Stock Market Crash Could Impact Your Earning Potential in Crypto
The possibility of a US stock market crash could have a significant impact on the crypto market, particularly on Bitcoin’s price. According to technical analyst Jesse Olson, if the stock market experiences a major crash, Bitcoin could tumble by over 60% to under $24,000 in 2026. This warning is crucial for individuals looking to earn passive income through crypto, as it may affect their potential earnings.
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Key takeaways:
- A US stock market crash of over 50% may accelerate BTC’s sell-off.
- Negative Coinbase premium and persistent ETF outflows hint at de-risking among institutional investors.
Bitcoin chart flags $23,980 worst-case downside target
Technical Analysis and Market Trends
Olson’s analysis is based on a long-term volume-weighted support line from his proprietary Market Sniper Pro VWAP indicator. The indicator suggests that Bitcoin’s price could fall toward $23,980, a level that Olson presents as his base-case forecast in a severe macro sell-off. This type of stress is already being flagged by veteran market observers, including Jeremy Grantham and Michael Burry.
Key Indicators to Watch
Several key indicators suggest that investors are still cautious about the crypto market. The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks Bitcoin’s price gap between Coinbase and Binance, has largely remained negative so far in 2026. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $4.68 billion in net outflows since May, reflecting weaker demand from professional investors and other ETF buyers.
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In Bitcoin’s case, Olson appears to have anchored the line from the 2022 bear market bottom, allowing it to slope forward as a potential long-term support zone.
Olson presented the $23,980 level as his base-case Bitcoin forecast in a severe macro sell-off, wherein the stock market drops by over 50%. The type of stress Olson warns about is already being flagged by veteran market observers.
For instance, GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham has called the ongoing AI market boom a major speculative bubble. While Michael Burry has compared the current rally to the final stages of the Dot-com mania.
Related: Arthur Hayes dumps HYPE, NEAR as he warns of AI IPO wave
Economist Gary Shilling has also warned that a US recession is “almost inevitable” by year-end, with stocks at risk of a 20%–30% decline.
BTC often trades like a high-risk asset during market stress. A deep stock-market sell-off could force investors to cut crypto exposure, turning Olson’s $23,980 level into a key downside level to watch.
Bitcoin institutional demand remains weak
Another bearish signal comes from the Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks Bitcoin’s price gap between Coinbase and Binance.
A positive premium usually points to stronger US institutional demand, while a negative reading suggests weaker professional buying or heavier selling on Coinbase.
In Bitcoin’s case, the index has largely remained negative so far in 2026, showing that institutional buyers are still not stepping in with conviction.
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index vs. price. Source: CryptoQuant/Darkfost
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are showing a similar trend. Since May, the US-based funds have recorded $4.68 billion in net outflows, according to SoSoValue data, reflecting weaker demand from professional investors and other ETF buyers.
US Bitcoin ETF net flows. Source: SoSoValue
“These investors don’t act like retail,” said Darkfost, a CryptoQuant-associated on-chain analyst, in a Sunday post, adding:
“They operate under permanent risk management logic, they’re not looking to buy a potential bottom, they’re looking for confirmation, for performance. And that’s not the case yet.”
In the past, multiple analysts, including Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn and pseudonymous trader Crypto Kid, have said Bitcoin could decline below $30,000 in the event of a stock market crash.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
- Bitcoin Analysis
- Markets
- BTC Markets
- Market Analysis
- Price Analysis
- Bitcoin ETF
- Coinbase
- Wall Street
- Bitcoin
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