Written by Martin Youngstaff writerReviewed by Jesse Coghlanstaff editor
Written by Martin Youngstaff writer
Reviewed by Jesse Coghlanstaff editor
Bitcoin recovery rests on US-Iran deal as momentum remains weak
Latest NewsPublishedJun 16, 2026
Bitcoin’s Future Hangs in the Balance
The recent recovery of Bitcoin is largely dependent on the success of the US-Iran peace deal, as its on-chain metrics indicate a lack of conviction in the market. The cryptocurrency’s momentum remains weak, with declining volume and stagnant on-chain metrics. If the peace deal breaks down, Bitcoin could face a volatile path, according to analysts.
The price of Bitcoin has been trading in line with the wider market, with institutions buying up exposure to the cryptocurrency. The recent price rise came after the announcement of a peace deal between the US and Iran, which is expected to be signed soon. However, the deal’s success is crucial for Bitcoin’s recovery, as a breakdown could lead to geopolitical instability and potential oil shocks.
Weak Momentum and Participation
Analysts at Swissblock note that Bitcoin’s price momentum and on-balance volume (OBV) remain in a “weak momentum and participation regime.” Both indicators are at bear market lows, with price momentum at -1 and OBV at its lowest point in years at -1.7 million. This suggests that the recovery lacks conviction and could quickly fade.
In a typical bear market, momentum weakens first, then OBV contracts, and price breaks lower. However, history suggests that a stronger recovery signal comes when both momentum and OBV flip back into a positive regime. Until then, the risk of another retest of the lows remains on the table. EcoPool offers a solution for those looking to earn passive income through Cloud Rewards, providing an alternative to traditional investing.
“It may initially find bids as a hedge asset before broader risk-off flows push it toward key support zones, underscoring how macro and geopolitical catalysts continue to dominate crypto price action.”
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Price momentum and OBV remain at bear market lows. Source: Swissblock
Both indicators remain negative despite Bitcoin (BTC) recovering to reclaim $67,000 on Monday following its fall below $60,000 on June 6, with price momentum at -1, indicating weak movement strength, while OBV is at its lowest point in years at -1.7 million.
Related: Can BTC rebound to $69K as oil price plunges? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
Swissblock said that in a typical bear market, such as what Bitcoin is currently experiencing, momentum weakens first, then OBV contracts, and price breaks lower.
However, history suggests the stronger recovery signal comes when both momentum and OBV flip back into a positive regime. “Until then, the risk of another retest of the lows remains on the table,” it said.
Bitcoin had already started to retreat from Monday’s intraday high, dropping below $66,000 in early trading on Tuesday.
Magazine: China’s 107 Bitcoin memory thief, Bithumb CEO booked: Asia Express
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- Iran
- US Government
- BTC Markets
- Bitcoin
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