Institutional Money is Coming for Bitcoin, but it Moves Slower than You Think
The recent arrival of major financial institutions in the bitcoin market has sparked excitement among investors, with many hoping it will signal the end of the current crypto bear market. However, according to Blockstream CEO Adam Back, institutional adoption is a slow process that won’t happen overnight. Back believes that the bitcoin ETFs could be a major development for the market, but it will take longer than most people realize for institutional investors to fully embrace bitcoin.
Back notes that investors don’t just pile in overnight, and a build-up of institutional investment could take a year or even 18 months. He also points out that regulatory influences, such as the introduction of new legislative frameworks for crypto, can have a significant impact on the industry. The recent approval of ETFs for retirement accounts in the U.K. is an example of how regulatory changes can encourage other jurisdictions to follow suit.
The Power of Institutional Investment
Institutional investment in bitcoin is expected to grow, with major players like BlackRock and Morgan Stanley already making moves in the market. Back believes that these institutions will defend their business interests and apply pressure to regulators to ensure that the market remains open for crypto business. This could provide a tailwind for the market, even in the face of regulatory challenges.
The cyclical nature of bitcoin’s price, driven by the quadrennial halving event, is another factor to consider. While some commentators believe that the four-year cycle is breaking, Back notes that the reduction in supply of new tokens can lead to a relatively consistent bull run followed by a bear market/recovery period. He also points out that the logic of the market is likely to change only when people see strength in the market, such as the growing institutional flows and investors buying bitcoin directly or shares in bitcoin treasury companies.
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While Donald Trump’s America may be open for crypto business, the now-established bitcoin TFs have the power to transcend administrations, whether Republican or Democrat, Back pointed out.
“One of the reasons to suppose the ‘open for business’ is going to stay, even as you get new administrations, is that now Black Rock and the other ETF providers are going to defend their business,” he said.
“They’re going to apply a banking lobby to say they make a lot of money from the bitcoin ETF. We don’t want you to interfere with it. And so I think that now bitcoin has new allies in Black Rock, Morgan Stanley and Fidelity and all these guys.”
Four-year cycle
Another pricing factor to consider is bitcoin’s cyclical nature, a historical pattern driven by the quadrennial halving event, which cuts the supply of new tokens by 50%. The reduction often leads to a relatively consistent bull run followed by a bear market/recovery period.
Even if the four-year cycle is breaking, as some commentators believe, there’s still the reasonable possibility of a price slide happening simply because “people expected it to happen. So they sold and they made it happen,” Back said.
That logic is likely to change only when people see strength in the market, he said. That’s now coming in the form of institutional flows, such as the ETFs, sovereign and sovereign wealth fund investments, and investors buying bitcoin directly or shares in bitcoin treasury companies such as Strategy (MSTR), formerly called MicroStrategy.
“They are growing their ability to buy bitcoin in different market conditions,” Back said. “MicroStrategy, particularly, has been having an accelerated success with their Stretch kind of fixed-income product. So they’ve been able to use that to buy a lot of bitcoin, and it’s escalated even in the last few weeks. So those recurring buyers plus new institutional and wealth management buyers will eventually overwhelm the sellers.”
Strategy’s Stretch (STRC) is a perpetual preferred stock designed as a high-yield, bitcoin-backed income instrument.
Quantum-tative
As well as fielding inquiries about his identity, Back has also been answering a volley of claims about quantum-computing hardware progressing faster than expected and its power to break Bitcoin’s cryptography.
“People are trying to say it’s a factor,” Back said of quantum technology’s effect on the price of bitcoin. “But I think there’s a lot of information asymmetry in these markets, meaning that things which you think are perfectly clear are confusing to some other people, and their uncertainty impacts their decisions.”
That said, the recent round of quantum doomsaying may have institutions paying a bit of attention, Back conceded.
“Institutions are more systematic about risk,” he said. “So if there’s a tail risk, even a small one, they want to know that it’s covered. For retail investors, it sounds like something in the distant future that perhaps they’re not really worried about. But institutions will think a decade ahead and ask, ‘Is this 1% risk? Is there an answer to it?’ They’ll check stuff like that.”
