Summary
- Jefferies stated the Clarity Act faces a difficult path through the Senate, with shrinking legislative time and unresolved political concerns.
- Passage would unlock the next phase of institutional digital asset adoption, while delays would prolong regulatory uncertainty.
- The bank anticipates elevated volatility in crypto tokens and blockchain-related equities as the bill’s prospects become clearer.
The Clarity Act still faces notable hurdles despite clearing the Senate Banking Committee, with investment bank Jefferies warning that political uncertainty could fuel volatility across crypto markets in the coming weeks.
The bill passed committee in a bipartisan 15-9 vote earlier this year, but the bank warned that tougher challenges lie ahead. Polymarket now puts the odds of passage by the end of 2026 at 48%, down from 70% in mid-May as concerns over ethics provisions, illicit finance and limited Senate floor time weigh on its prospects.
Lawmakers have roughly 20 legislative days before the August recess to merge competing Senate versions, clear procedural votes, reconcile the measure with the House bill and send it to President Donald Trump.
“Failure to pass Clarity before the August recess could push the bill out to next year, or even later, if Democrats flip the Senate in November,” analysts led by Andrew Moss stated in the Tuesday report.
