Live updates: An AI credit bubble could set up bitcoin’s path to $1 million

Live updates: An AI credit bubble could set up bitcoin’s path to $1 million
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Shaurya Malwa

Shaurya Malwa

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Arthur Hayes says the AI bubble is a 2008-style credit blowup, and bitcoin is what catches the bailout

Why an AI Credit Bubble Could Send Bitcoin Soaring

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of a prominent crypto exchange, believes the current AI trend is being misunderstood. He thinks the ongoing infrastructure buildout is a credit story, similar to the 2008 financial crisis, rather than an earnings story like the 2000 dot-com bust. This could have significant implications for the price of bitcoin, potentially driving it towards $1 million.

Hyperscalers, or computing firms, are borrowing against their massive data centers, which are filled with rapidly depreciating chips. Lenders are bankrolling these endeavors, believing they are financing technology, when in reality the underlying asset is more similar to real estate. This credit bubble is expected to burst when announced capex stops accelerating, which Hayes predicts will occur in late 2027 or 2028.

The Fallout and Bitcoin’s Potential

The break in the credit bubble is expected to have a significant impact on the market. Hayes believes that Washington and Beijing will intervene to backstop the wreckage, printing more money than they did in 2008. This influx of liquidity could be what drives bitcoin’s price towards $1 million. In the nearer term, Hayes expects the recent AI selloff to be a dip inside a bull market, with bitcoin potentially benefiting from the increased liquidity.

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The nearer-term call is that the recent AI selloff, Korea’s leveraged unwind included, is a dip inside a bull market.

Bitcoin traded near $64,200 on Wednesday, flat on the week and still stuck in the range it has held since May.

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