Summary
- A set of four rare on-chain indicators tracked by hedge fund Hyperion Decimus has aligned for only the sixth time in bitcoin’s history, a pattern that previously coincided with market bottoms.
- Portfolio manager Chris Sullivan stated bitcoin is likely either to break above a key $82,000 resistance level or fall to as low as $48,000 in a final capitulation within 90 days before a new uptrend can be verified.
- Sullivan argued that structural changes in U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and improvements in onchain fundamentals are more crucial than bearish narratives, even as he maintains that the bear market pattern has not yet fully completed.
Bitcoin BTC$59,251.27 could be approaching a major turning point after a rare combination of onchain indicators flashed signals that have historically coincided with market bottoms, as reported by Chris Sullivan, co-founder and portfolio manager at digital asset hedge fund Hyperion Decimus.
In a recent report, the hedge fund explained that four proprietary onchain signals have aligned only five times during bitcoin’s 15-year history. Each previous occurrence marked a cycle bottom, although Sullivan cautioned that this time still lacks final technical confirmation.
“We have literally like every box checked, except for a final pattern,” Sullivan stated in an interview with CoinDesk. “Either we have to break above the $82,000 pivot to confirm, or we have one final low, call it between $54,000 and $57,000. Perhaps a wick to $48,000 to capitulate. One of those two conditions we expect to happen in the next 90 days.”
If either scenario unfolds, Sullivan maintains bitcoin could quickly diverge from broader financial markets. The crypto asset is trading at $59,386 after losing 23% over the past month, extending its divergence from U.S. equities, which had climbed to record highs before also coming under pressure this month.
