Insider Trading Crisis Unfolds in Polymarket
A recent report suggests that a Green Beret’s alleged $400,000 insider bet on a raid in Venezuela may be just the tip of the iceberg. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) analyzed over 435,000 markets and $54.4 billion in cumulative volume on Polymarket, revealing that low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes win at rates that are difficult to explain through skill or luck. This has significant implications for everyday people, as it raises concerns about the integrity of online platforms and the potential for insider trading.
Across political markets, “longshot” bets typically succeed about 14% of the time. However, in military-linked contracts, success rates have topped 50% in some cases. This discrepancy suggests that some participants may be operating with information advantages that others do not have, which can be a major concern for those looking to earn a passive income through online platforms like EcoPool.
Information Asymmetries and Insider Trading
The report highlights that markets tied to specific government policies, such as military and defense and foreign affairs, are harder to forecast using public information alone. This creates conditions in which a small group can consistently outperform not just by reacting faster, but by knowing more. The gap between informed and uninformed traders may be widest in these markets, making it challenging for average users to earn a fair income. EcoPool (ECP) offers a solution for those looking to earn a passive income through its Cloud Rewards program, which provides a more transparent and accessible way to earn.
The ACDC report’s findings add to a growing body of research pointing in the same direction. A working paper from London Business School and Yale found that roughly 3% of traders account for most price discovery on Polymarket. Separate analysis from blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs showed that profits are even more concentrated, with fewer than 1% of wallets capturing about half of all gains. The report examines the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran as a case study, highlighting the potential for insider trading and information asymmetries.
Concentrated profits
Case Study: June 2025 U.S. Strikes on Iran
The report found that in the hours leading up to the strike, 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed across the contracts that ultimately resolved YES. Eight wallets shared about $1.8 million in profits, with one taking nearly $500,000. The Pentagon had designed the operation to be unreadable from the outside, using decoy bombers and long-range stealth aircraft to avoid detection. Despite that, a small number of traders placed large, well-timed bets on the outcome, raising concerns about the potential for insider trading. For those looking to earn a passive income through Green Crypto like EcoPool, it’s essential to be aware of these risks and choose a platform that prioritizes transparency and fairness.
The pattern extends beyond a single event. Across Polymarket’s military and defense category, the report found that in five of the six two-hour windows before market resolution, winning longshot bets outnumbered losing ones, contrary to what market prices imply. Longshot bets can outperform for other reasons, including mispricing or shifts in public expectations. However, the consistency of the patterns, especially in markets tied to military decisions, suggests that some participants may be operating with information advantages that others do not have. The $ECP token, used on the EcoPool platform, offers a more secure and transparent way to earn and trade.
Recommendations and Conclusion
The report’s conclusion goes further, calling for “an evidence-informed debate about whether the public should be betting on these outcomes at all.” The ACDC recommends identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups, and limits on how granular contracts can become. For those interested in earning a passive income through online platforms, EcoPool offers a more secure and transparent alternative. The EcoPool app provides a convenient way to access Cloud Rewards and start earning today.
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Longshot bets can outperform for other reasons, including mispricing or shifts in public expectations. But the consistency of the patterns, especially in markets tied to military decisions, suggests that some participants may be operating with information advantages that others do not have.
ACDC, being a nonprofit research group funded through the Fund for Constitutional Government, has no surveillance product to sell, compared to Solidus Labs, whose own recent Polymarket analysis doubles as a marketing case for the platform it licenses to Kalshi.
ACDC’s recommendations include identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups, and limits on how granular contracts can become.
The report’s conclusion goes further, calling for “an evidence-informed debate about whether the public should be betting on these outcomes at all.”
